Comparison of Mann-Kendall and innovative trend method (Şen trend) for monthly total precipitation (Middle Black Sea Region, Turkey)

Abstract

The objective of this study is to determine possible trend in annual total precipitation based on Mann–Kendall (MK) and a novel method lately published by Şen. The novel method is used for trend analysis of annual total precipitation data recorded at Sinop, Samsun, Ordu, Corum, Amasya, and Tokat provinces in Turkey. This provinces are located in the central Black Sea region of Turkey. The novel Şen’s trend method is applied to this data. According to the Şen’s trend method, peak and low values of annual total precipitation of the six provinces demonstrate same trends (increasing, decreasing, or trendless time series) with the MK test. The study demonstrates that the Şen method can be used for identifying trend analysis of peak and low values of annual total precipitation data. According to the MK trend test, annual total precipitations demonstrate increasing trend for Sinop, Ordu and Tokat provinces while Şen’s method indicates increasing trend in Sinop, Amasya and Tokat in Turkey. As a result, Şen’s method provides an important advantage in terms of especially in all ranges graphically clarification of the data evaluation phase.