Demand Analysis for Passengers in the Railway Transport Sector Depending to Macro Indicators in Albania

Abstract

The railway sector in Albania is considered one of the most underdeveloped sectors in the Albanian Transport System. In agreement with annual statistics, in 2014 transport of passengers was ten times lower than in 2001, meanwhile transport of goods were 2.5 times lower. Even though the overall economy during these years has been growing, import/export has been increasing and the number of tourists visiting Albania too. The number of personal vehicles increased three times in the last 14 years. Over 90% of the annual capital investments of the Ministry of Transport has been allocated to road, air and maritime transport, while the funds for the railway sector have been almost non-existent. A series of studies funded by the European Union, have been developed in order to support investments in the existing railway’s system. According to statistical data gathered by a variety of fonts, an evolutionary model will be built in order to predict the railway passenger demand in Albania. The aim of this article is to identify the influence of the macroeconomic factors on the railway passenger demand, and to build an evolutionary model based on some relevant variables. This model will be applied in a future scenario in accordance with these variables.