An ARIMA birth number per month model for Albanian population

Abstract

Population projection models play a significant role in analyzing currentdemographic processes, as well as in forecasting their future development. In this study,we examine the number of birth per month, over the twenty-four year period 1985-2008in Albania. We use data from INSTAT Albania official site. From a careful observationof the data, we see that there are months where the number of births is clearly higher, aswell as others, where it seems to be lower. A decreasing trend is also evident. In ourstudy, we use the Box-Jenkins methodology and R software as a programming languageto consider process seasonal patterns. We model data by an ARIMA (p, d, q) stochasticprocess and we use it to forecast the number of births in Albania on the future. The modelcan be useful for governmental or nongovernmental agencies as well as insurancescompanies interested on birth number evolution in Albania.