THE DETECTION OF CORRUPTION USING INDICATORS: A MATHEMATICAL MODEL

Abstract

The long-term experience of democratic states around the world on the war against corruption has revealed the need of implementing active provision for the reinforcement of the detection and punishment of corruptive activities. The survival and the “metastasis of corruption cancer” favored maximally by the absence of monitoring the behavior of the state officials, using corruption indicators presented in this study. We propose a set of precautions which will make possible to a great extent the detection of the corruptive activities committed by the officials in the public sector. Therefore, this study is useful to the Albanian Republic Government in order to effectively fight the actual corruptive system, especially in the economy, juridical system, ministries, health system, municipalities and Albanian universities. The implementation of this study might change in a few years the perception of corruption from “an activity with less risk and greater economic benefit” into “an activity with great risk and zero economic benefit”. This study needs to be applied as soon as possible especially in the areas where the system of corruption is destroying the economic development and impeding the functioning of main state institutions (e.g. customs, tax offices, ownership rights and appropriations, ministries, municipalities, law courts and offices of state attorneys, universities, etc.).We develop a mathematical model for calculating the probability of detecting corruption of public sector officials by monitoring their behavior by a set containing 47 indicators. There are two types of corruption indicators: neutral indicators and specifics indicators. These indicators are considered acceptable by Scientific Research in Criminology, as well by the general social opinion. The indicators of corruption provide different contributions in the detection and punishment of corruptive activities, some of these indicators are more important than others. We associate each indicator with corresponding probability, that the official monitored will be corrupted. The detection of corruption through monitoring the behavior of public sector officials by indicators is a scientific method, which combines contemporary achievements of the Scientific Research in Criminology with Probability Theory. This scientific method is powerful and general, because it can be applied in different fields: economy, judicial system, education system and in each time period. The indicators of corruption implicate real life facts; they are not simply assumptions or hypotheses. The main results of the study include the formulas (1) – (4).