The impact of macroeconomic factors and corruption on the Italian economic growth

Abstract

The aim of this study is to perform an econometric analysis on the Italian economic growth from 1983 until 2017 using quarterly data. This analysis consists eight macroeconomic factors. Our dependent variable is GDP growth rate while the independent variables are: unemployment rate, inflation rate, short term interest rate, productivity index, exports growth rate, imports growth rate and hourly wage industry. In this study we will be using the, Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root test, ARDL model, Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM and Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey Heteroskedasticity Test. Based on our results from the ARDL model we find unemployment and productivity to be the macroeconomic factors which effect the GDP growth the most. We find no proof of heteroskedasicity or serial correlation in our model.