THE WESTERN BALKANS’ SECURITY DILEMMA AND THE IMPACT OF THE RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE

Abstract

Due to Serbia's positive connections with Russia, the Western Balkan region is experiencing greater unease as a result of the just starting conflict in Ukraine and the Russian invasion. Therefore, the purpose of this paper will be to determine whether the conflict between Russia and Ukraine resulted in a security dilemma in the Western Balkans. In addition, it aims to determine how much the security dilemma might intensify ethnic tensions in the Western Balkans. The framework is primarily centered on realist theories of international relations and their subcategories, such as structural realism, which is further divided into offensive and defensive realism, as well as the security dilemma and its impact on regional conflicts. This paper adopts a qualitative methodology for its data collection, analysis, and justification. The crisis and conflict is between Ukraine and Russia nevertheless, the security dilemma is happening between Russia and NATO. The possibility of this conflict spreading and affecting the Western Balkans, which have a significant Russian influence, is not remote or unthinkable. Serbia is heavily affected by Russia, as evidenced by its posture and position in this conflict. The failure to impose sanctions against the Kremlin despite condemning the aggression is a clear sign of their relationship. Despite the present trend of cosmopolitanism and the establishment of strong international organizations to uphold peace and stability worldwide, the anarchic state of states are still clearly apparent today as seen by the now raging violent conflict. States that do not belong to strong military alliances and organizations find it easier to find themselves in a security dilemma that could quickly escalate into an active conflict.