RISK ANALYSIS IN FIXED- PRICE DESIGN-BUILD CONTRUCTION PROJECTS - a case study in Albania

Abstract

In times of a project-based industry and blooming construction in Albania, the experience and clear objectives of a project manager definitely make possible the success of the project. As construction industry in Albania is mostly working with design-build fixed-prize contracts and on the other hand the economy is still in a transition phase, it is very important for the project managers to manage the risks related with the construction phase. The review on existing literature found out a lack of existing models for risks management, especially related to the resource categories, therefore our research focuses in creating an analytical model that can help the project managers clearly define and analyse the risks before the construction phase. An interview with five project managers clarified the need of using an analytical model and gave the possibility to validate it through the use of a real case study project. The insightful model created experienced the contextual investigation examination with the utilization of virtual products like Microsoft Project, Excel and Palisade @Risk which utilizes Monte Carlo reproduction. Once the analysis was conducted, its results were compared with the data from the real project results and a final interview with the project manager was made, in order to check if this analysis could have been benefitial for the company if conducted before. Even though the model was validated, it cannot be generalized as a model to be used in every type of project, so future works need to offer a further validation through other real case projects.