The Effect of Population on Overall Sales: The Case from Nela Bakery

Abstract

This diploma thesis investigates the intricate relationship between population dynamics and sales performance, specifically examining Nela Bakery in Albania. The study addresses the problem of understanding how demographic changes directly impact localized retail sales, challenging the simplistic assumption that population growth solely drives sales. To achieve this, empirical data on population changes from INSTAT for 10 Albanian districts was gathered and combined with Nela Bakery's production data for products X, Y, and Z (serving as a proxy for sales). The dataset was augmented with historical data to enhance robustness. Quantitative analysis involved linear regression and ANOVA to derive conclusions. The key findings reveal a nuanced relationship. For Products X and Y, a strong positive correlation between population growth and production increase was observed in rapidly expanding urban centers like Tirana and Durres. However, remarkably, in the majority of other districts experiencing population decline, production for these same products showed a consistent increase, suggesting resilience or the influence of other undisclosed factors. Product Z, conversely, demonstrated no statistically significant relationship with population changes. The study concludes that for Nela Bakery's sales, there is no consistent or direct causative link to population increase or decrease across most districts and product categories.