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This paper examines the determinants of ecological sustainability in the European Union (EU) by analyzing carbon intensity, defined as carbon footprint per capita relative to GDP - across 27 member states from 2000 to 2024. Using the Kaya identity and Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) as theoretical frameworks, a fixed-effects panel model with first differencing is applied. Results show that trade openness, energy intensity, economic abundance, and primary energy consumption all exert positive and significant effects on carbon intensity. Energy intensity emerges as the strongest driver, while GDP per capita reflects the upward stage of the EKC in several states. The findings highlight the need for reinforced EU climate policies, including the European Green Deal, the Emissions Trading System (ETS), and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), to support efficiency gains, renewable adoption, and carbon-conscious trade.
Keywords: European Union; carbon intensity; energy intensity; trade openness; GDP per capita; Environmental Kuznets Curve; Kaya identity; European Green Deal; ETS; CBAM |
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